Determinants of crime across conflict and non-conflict states in India

Abstract

The paper has two main goals. First, using district level panel data we examine the key determinants of violent crime, non-violent crimes and crime against women in India for the period 1990-2007. Second, using the district level variation in Maoist conflict, we examine how conflict affects both crime as well as the roles of various determinants of crime. In addition to looking at the conventional determinants of crime (law enforcement and economic variables), we examine how variation in sex ratios affects crime. We also look at whether the gender of the chief political decision maker in each state (i.e. the Chief Minister) affects crime. We find that improvements in arrest rate decrease the incidence of all types of crimes. Socio-economic variables have relatively little explanatory power. We also find evidence that unbalanced sex ratios, in particular in rural areas, may adversely affect crime. Female political representation with greater decision-making power particularly diminishes violent crime and crime against women. Finally, we find a counter-intuitive result that in districts affected by the Maoist insurgency, all types of crime are lower and we offer explanations for why that may be the case.